Is France going to play first fiddle in Karabakh talks?

The aggravated situation regarding the delimitation of state borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia makes the parties intensify their diplomatic efforts to achieve an agreeable position in the region. While Azerbaijan is trying to gain a foothold in the territories liberated by it, modernizing its infrastructure and restoring the economy, the head of Armenia meets with European diplomats to find support and try to “revise” this document. He previously spoke with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin.

Report informs citing Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper that Nikol Pashinyan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin the other day, discussing, among other things, the situation in Karabakh. After the meeting, it was stated that the parties touched upon the implementation of the trilateral declarations on Nagorno-Karabakh dated November 9, 2020, and January 11, 2021. In November 2020, Azerbaijan, in a short time as a result of the military conflict, restored control over Karabakh and adjacent districts and a trilateral agreement on the cessation of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan was signed with the participation of the Russian Federation. According to the document, the Armenian Armed Forces left the territory of Azerbaijan, and a peacekeeping contingent of Russian troops was deployed in Karabakh. The deal was signed by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. Now, judging by the ongoing events, there seems to be a dissatisfied party among those who inked the document looking for a new mediating center.

Diplomats from France and Armenia are holding intensive meetings in Yerevan, Paris, and New York, trying to delegitimize the trilateral ceasefire declaration concluded on November 9, 2020.

As the Russian newspaper writes, French President Emmanuel Macron and Nikol Pashinyan “are considering the possibility of adopting a new plan proposing a revision of the previous UN Security Council resolution on the situation in Karabakh.”

Paris’ aspiration to gain more diplomatic weight and play a more significant role in the EU has been observed for a long time. Nicolas Sarkozy also tried to play a peacemaker and negotiator role during the 2008 South Ossetian conflict. Macron is considered a continuer of this tradition. Therefore it is not surprising that he is interested in alternative proposals that could strengthen the position of Paris in the Transcaucasus.

As the newspaper notes, ” not only the introduction of French troops into the South Caucasus and their deployment along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, but also entry into Karabakh is being considered.”

Now the order in the region is controlled by Russian peacekeeping forces. Still, Pashinyan regularly says that this is not enough, claiming that Azerbaijan is supposedly ready to start hostilities in Karabakh again. At the same time, the other day, making his first speech after winning the snap elections, Pashinyan, as Kommersant writes, entered a “war of words” “similar to the one that turned into a real clash a year ago.”

President of the European Council Charles Michel said in Yerevan: the EU intends to participate in solving the problems of the region more actively, DW reported. He confirmed the readiness of Brussels to provide Armenia with the financial assistance of 2.6 billion euros, which should be directed to the development of infrastructure and democratic reforms. The Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the European Union and Armenia entered into force on March 1. “The effective implementation of the agreement will bring tangible results to the citizens of Armenia, contribute to the strengthening of democracy, political, economic, and social stability through large-scale reforms, and over time will have an impact on the welfare and standard of living of citizens,” the Armenian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

So the desire of European, and above all French, diplomacy to stake out a new sphere of influence in the Transcaucasus is evident.

Meanwhile, France’s activity could cost Russia dearly. If, as a result of the communication between Pashinyan and Macron, a trilateral agreement is threatened, the Russian Federation will find itself in a difficult position – Moscow will no longer play the leading role in the negotiation process, which means that it will be more difficult to defend its interests in a strategically important region than before.

It will be more challenging to keep the Armenian leadership from reckless steps that could aggravate the conflict.

If Russia is interested in preserving the current situation, the EU and Paris, as one might assume, prefer to roll back the situation to the last year’s level, regardless of possible losses, and then act as the only mediator of the conflict.

The prospect of submitting a French-Armenian resolution on the deployment of French troops in Armenia, on the border with Azerbaijan for UN discussion, may turn out to be quite real in the near future. Most likely, Russia will have to use its veto right to show its place to its ally and save its southern borders from the presence of foreign troops. The negotiations taking place in Europe can actually be called “trade of sovereignty.” Pashinyan behaves as if Armenia is ready to make any sacrifices, just not to sign an agreement with Azerbaijan on the delimitation and demarcation of borders, that is, to recognize the territorial integrity of each other.